Bay Area voter turnout growing ahead of CA gubernatorial primary as mail-in ballots surge
Ballots ahead of Tuesday's primary election are being returned at a rapid pace across California, with statewide turnout at about 16% as of Monday and rising quickly.
Election officials and political analysts say a late surge in voting could push turnout beyond levels seen in the 2022 governor's race, driven in part by a competitive open gubernatorial contest.
At the Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters Office, volunteers were busy Monday processing incoming ballots as voters continued to weigh in on the governor's race and other key contests.
"We're going to surpass the early vote of the 2022 cycle. That seems very clear. It is, of course, a competitive open gubernatorial race versus 2022, which was a reelection," said Political Data Vice President Paul Mitchell.
Mitchell said roughly 16% of ballots have been returned statewide so far, with a significant portion arriving within the past day. In Los Angeles County alone, he noted, 30% of total turnout was recorded Monday.
Early returns also show a shift in voting patterns, with more Republican ballots coming in earlier than usual. Meanwhile, Mitchell said some voters in more Democratic-leaning counties have delayed casting ballots as they consider their options.
"There's been a lot of consternation about this governor's race, and a lot of Democrats have been holding onto their ballots, kind of waiting to vote strategically. Balancing that idea of these are the candidates I'm interested in supporting, but also these are the candidates that are really viable," he said.
According to Political Data tracking, turnout in San Mateo and Alameda counties is roughly in line with the statewide average, while San Francisco is lagging behind that pace.
In Santa Clara County, election officials report turnout at about 19%, with ballots continuing to arrive. Voting has been underway since early May, and workers are expected to process ballots through the weekend until every vote is counted.
"Through our checks and balances and the things that we do to prepare for an election, and with the groups that we work with both at a local, state, and a federal level, we make sure all our i's are dotted and t's are crossed with our systems and processes," said Andre De Ocampo.
Officials also cautioned voters about a U.S. Postal Service processing change that could mean some mail-in ballots are not postmarked in time to be counted. They emphasized that voters still have multiple options to participate, including 112 vote centers and 111 drop box locations across Santa Clara County.
With ballots continuing to arrive and Election Day approaching, officials expect turnout to keep climbing as voters make their final decisions.
