Grading bold 2025-26 season predictions for all 30 NBA teams

Before this NBA season began, I made 30 bold but realistic predictions, one for each team. In retrospect, some of them made me look prescient and smart. Others ... less so.

So as the 2025-26 season winds down and the offseason approaches, it's a good time to reflect on those scattered prognoses. I'm grading each of my predictions, looking back, as well as spinning it forward to forecast how these 2025-26 outcomes might influence the 2026-27 season to come. (Hat tip toDavid Schoenfield, who does this exercise for ESPN's MLB coverage.)

Teams are organized from best to worst grades below:

Jump to a team:

ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI

CLE|DAL | DEN | DET | GS

HOU | IND|LAC | LAL | MEM

MIA|MIL | MIN | NO | NYK

OKC|ORL | PHI | PHX|POR

SAC | SA | TOR | UTAH | WAS

New York Knicks

The prediction: The Knicks finish third in the East in the regular season ... but still reach the Finals.

Grade: A+

Nailed it! New York landed the 3-seed because it struggled through some growing pains and inconsistency under new coach Mike Brown, but it turned into the most statistically dominant team in NBA playoff history and reached the Finals on an 11-game winning streak.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: First things first: The Knicks are on the precipice of their first championship since 1973. Considering this prediction as it relates to next season, however, it's likely they will fare better in the regular season than they did in 2025-26, now that they've fully jelled and flourished under Brown. And regardless of how these Finals finish, the Knicks will likely enter next season as the favorites to emerge from the East once again.

Atlanta Hawks

The prediction:Jalen Johnson makes the All-NBA third team.

Grade: A+

Johnson was one of the breakout stars of the season. The do-it-all forward averaged career highs across the board (22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.9 assists per game) and took over for Trae Young as Atlanta's best player. He comfortably slotted into the All-NBA third team.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Johnson wasn't able to replicate those highs in the playoffs (19.5 points, 7.7 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game), but the 24-year-old's emergence gives Atlanta a new direction after trading Young. The Hawks should remain a fringe contender next season, with Johnson leading the way.

Denver Nuggets

The prediction: Two Nuggets make the All-Star team.

Grade: A+

Nikola Jokic was a shoo-in. But he famously had never been teammates with an All-Star before this season, and Jamal Murray was widely regarded as the best active player never to make an All-Star team. I thought that would change, and Murray proved me right: He started strong and turned in the best regular season of his career, averaging 25.4 PPG and ranking fifth in 3-point makes. He not only received his first All-Star nod, but his first All-NBA honor, as well.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: A better regular-season performance didn't continue into the playoffs, where Murray shot just 36% from the field in a surprising first-round loss to Minnesota.

Now, the Nuggets are considering drastic changes to their rotation around Jokic, as ESPN's Shams Charania reported last month that they are "expected to take calls" about every other player on the roster. The goal is to surround Jokic with as much talent as possible, after three consecutive postseasons falling short of the conference finals.

Toronto Raptors

The prediction: Toronto earns a top-six seed.

Grade: A+

Here's what I wrote about the Raptors in October: "Although their ceiling looks low, their floor is a lot higher than those of the other injury-decimated rosters in the East." And indeed, they fell in the first round of the playoffs, but not before finishing with their first winning record in four years and landing the 5-seed.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: With a high floor secured, Toronto now must figure out how to raise its ceiling -- though the team could reasonably argue it would have already advanced in the playoffs with a healthy Brandon Ingram and Immanuel Quickley.

Milwaukee Bucks

The prediction:Ryan Rollins is the Bucks' best guard.

Grade: A

Only two Bucks ended the season in contention for the title of the team's best guard: Rollins averaged 17.3 points and 5.6 assists across 74 games with 58% true shooting, while Kevin Porter Jr. averaged 17.4 points and 7.4 assists in 38 games with 57% true shooting. Given Rollins' big advantage in availability, it's reasonable to rate him as No. 1, just a year after he was a two-way player for Milwaukee.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: If the Bucks retain Giannis Antetokounmpo, then Rollins will be a key player for a team trying to contend. But if the Bucks trade their MVP, they'll have to consider whether to keep the 23-year-old Rollins as a long-term building block or deal him, too. With a cap hit of just $4 million next year, he would be a very valuable player for a team trying to win.

Dallas Mavericks

The prediction:P.J. Washington starts at least half of Dallas' games.

Grade: A

Dallas brought Washington off the bench for its first two preseason games, instead starting D'Angelo Russell and Klay Thompson in the backcourt. That state of affairs didn't last long as the Mavericks sought more defensive ability on the perimeter: Washington started on opening night and made 53 starts overall, while Thompson and Russell made just 11 starts combined.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Washington is a great stylistic fit next to Cooper Flagg in Dallas' frontcourt. Now the only question about his place in the Mavericks' starting lineup is whether they keep him to try to win next season -- with a healthy Kyrie Irving back in the fold -- or trade him for picks or young players who are closer in age to Flagg.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The prediction:Mike Conley loses his starting spot.

Grade: A

In retrospect, this prediction wasn't bold enough: Conley had started 97% of his games since joining the Timberwolves in 2023, including every playoff game, but the 38-year-old was clearly aging out of that era of his career. This prediction was clinched on opening night, when Minnesota coach Chris Finch swapped Donte DiVincenzo in for Conley in the starting lineup -- though Conley did end up starting five playoff games because of injuries in the Timberwolves' guard rotation.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: DiVincenzo's Achilles tear has created an opening in Minnesota's backcourt. Yet while the Timberwolves could retain Conley, who's a free agent this summer, they'll more likely re-sign free agent Ayo Dosunmu and use him as their fifth starter going forward.

Detroit Pistons

The prediction:Ausar Thompson joins his brother on the All-Defensive Team.

Grade: A-

Amen Thompson made the All-Defensive first team in 2024-25, then tied for 11th in the voting this season while Ausar replaced him on the first team. The Pistons' stopper received the most votes for any perimeter player in the league. The only problem with this prediction, it turned out, was that Amen didn't repeat as an All-NBA defender.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Thompson is eligible to sign his first contract extension this summer, and it could be a tricky negotiation, given his incredible strengths on defense and deficiencies on the other end. Still, he seems likely to be a core player for Detroit over the long term, flanking Cade Cunningham on a young contender.

Cleveland Cavaliers

The prediction: The Cavaliers finish with a below-average defense.

Grade: A-

The Cavaliers finished 15th in defensive rating, so they were above average by the narrowest of margins. But that still represented a major decline after they had top-10 defenses in the first four seasons of Evan Mobley's career. I'm giving myself almost full credit, despite the technical loss.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: The Cavaliers face some of the largest team-building questions of any team this offseason, after they compiled a losing playoff record despite making the conference finals. Defensive problems continued to plague them in the postseason, as they ranked 12th in defensive rating out of 16 teams, and a backcourt of James Harden and Donovan Mitchell isn't likely to improve much on that front going forward.

Orlando Magic

The prediction: Orlando is a bottom-three team in 3-point percentage, even with sharpshooter Desmond Bane joining the rotation.

Grade: A-

The Magic finished 27th in 3-point percentage, meaning they were a bottom-four team, but they beat the 28th-place team (Portland) by less than one-tenth of 1%: Orlando made 34.33% of its 3s, while Portland made 34.26%. That's close enough that if the Magic had made just three fewer 3-pointers -- three total 3s, across 82 games -- they would've been bottom-three in percentage.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Clearly, Bane didn't fix the Magic's shooting woes by himself. They'll need more to change to improve this persistent weakness. Maybe new coach Sean Sweeney can help, or maybe another blockbuster trade this summer could give Orlando's roster the right balance it needs to win in the modern NBA.

Charlotte Hornets

The prediction: Two Hornets -- Kon Knueppel and Ryan Kalkbrenner -- make the All-Rookie Team.

Grade: B+

Knueppel was a unanimous selection for the All-Rookie first team, while Kalkbrenner finished as the runner-up for the last spot on the second team, placing on 43 out of 100 ballots, thanks to his 1.5 blocks per game and eye-popping 75% field goal shooting.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Both Knueppel and Kalkbrenner -- and, to a lesser extent, fellow 2025 draftee Sion James -- look like long-term building blocks for the budding Hornets.

Knueppel, of course, could develop into a full-on star, after leading the NBA in made 3-pointers. Kalkbrenner might not have the highest ceiling, due to his age (already 24) and limited mobility, but he profiles as a strong rotation big at the very least.

Brooklyn Nets

The prediction: The Nets lead the league in turnovers.

Grade: B+

Brooklyn had the second-most turnovers, just behind the Trail Blazers. Interestingly, the Nets were an equal-opportunity turnover group; no individual player averaged more than 2.3 giveaways per game, but they racked up plenty via a group effort.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: All of the Nets' young ball handlers will be a year older and more experienced next season, and Brooklyn might have more large-scale moves in store this summer. The Nets don't control their own first-round pick in 2027, so they're incentivized to try to win a lot more games -- and commit a lot fewer turnovers -- next season.

Indiana Pacers

The prediction:Jay Huff is the best Pacers center.

Grade: B

Huff turned in a solid season, averaging 9.5 points and 1.9 blocks per game while making 32% of his 3s on a high volume. He was the only Pacer to play all 82 games. But he was Indiana's best center -- which happened almost by default, because Isaiah Jackson wasn't the answer in his return from an Achilles tear -- only until February, when the team saw the need for a more impactful long-term option and traded forIvica Zubac.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Huff is under contract for an eminently reasonable $2.7 million, and he should slot in as one of the best backup centers in the league. Indiana's bench was a huge strength during the team's Finals run a year ago, so Huff can help with that effort next season.

Philadelphia 76ers

The prediction: The 76ers finish 41-41.

Grade: B

This prediction was premised on the fact that the 76ers had either been very good or very bad in each of the past 12 seasons, but they looked more mediocre entering 2025-26. That part was true, at least; their 45-37 record was their closest to .500 since 2011-12. But a perfectly even 41-41 record was out of reach.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Forecasting the 76ers' record next season is a fool's errand, as it's still so dependent on Joel Embiid's unpredictable availability. But with another season of development for Tyrese Maxey and VJ Edgecombe, they should expect another winning record.

Miami Heat

The prediction:Kel'el Wareaverages 15 points and 10 rebounds.

Grade: C

Ware averaged 9.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game as a rookie, and he boosted those figures by only minor amounts in his second season: 11.1 points and 9.0 rebounds per game.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Because of his youth and potential, the 22-year-old Ware is a prime trade candidate this summer if Miami goes searching for a star. But if he is still on the roster next season, it remains an open question whether he can fit next to Bam Adebayo.

Sometimes that big duo works, but other times its spacing limitations get in the way of efficient offense, so Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has spent the past two seasons shuffling Ware in and out of the starting lineup.

Chicago Bulls

The prediction:Josh Giddey flirts with averaging a triple-double.

Grade: C

Giddey tied for second in total triple-doubles, with 13. But in terms of his season averages, while he boosted his assists to 9.1 per game -- which ranked third in the NBA -- his rebounds barely budged: He averaged 8.3 this season and 8.1 last season.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Without Coby White andAyo Dosunmu, whom the Bulls traded at the deadline, Giddey is the clear No. 1 playmaker in Chicago -- and he might be the No. 1 scorer, too, depending on Matas Buzelis' development and what the Bulls do with the No. 4 pick in the draft.

Giddey could boost his individual statistics even more next season, even as the team around him changes under new management.

New Orleans Pelicans

The prediction:Derik Queen rarely shares the court with Zion Williamson.

Grade: C

I was right in spirit: Lineups with Williamson and Queen together were outscored by 11.0 points per 100 possessions, showing that the two similar players can't play next to each other. That was the worst net rating for any two-man combination on the Pelicans that played at least 400 minutes.

Despite those difficulties, however, the duo shared the court for 711 minutes, which is far more than I expected.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Figuring out how to structure New Orleans' rotation will be one of the main tasks for new Pelicans coach Jamahl Mosley, who's no stranger to highly drafted players who aren't an ideal fit next to each other. As of now, Williamson projects as a starter and Queen as a reserve -- but is that enough for a franchise that spent so much draft capital to acquire Queen in the first place?

Golden State Warriors

The prediction: Golden State earns home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

Grade: C-

Obviously, Golden State didn't finish anywhere near a top-four seed, with a 37-45 record that placed 10th in the West. It didn't start out that bad: The Warriors were 25-19, 3 games back of the 4-seed, when Jimmy Butlertore his ACL in January. But they never fulfilled the analytical expectations that they were a sneaky contender this season, either.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: With Butler set to miss a chunk of next season, the Warriors need a major talent infusion this summer if they want to remain competitive in Stephen Curry's post-peak period. Could they trade forGiannis Antetokounmpo? Sign LeBron James? Bring in some other star? All options should be on the table.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The prediction: The Thunder become the third 70-win team in NBA history.

Grade: D+

I was almost ready to take a victory lap on this prediction, after the Thunder started 24-1. But injuries and a 1-4 regular-season record against the Spurs prevented them from making a real run at 70 wins; even if they'd won every single game after the All-Star break, they would have finished 68-14.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: In addition to predicting the Thunder would win 70 games, I also suggested before this season that it could be Oklahoma City's peak, at least in the regular season, because it could be the Thunder's last before they had to start shedding contributors because of cap constraints. Now they've arrived at that juncture, with big offseason questions about an increasingly expensive roster following a loss in the conference finals.

Add in the fact that with the new draft lottery rules, there's no incentive for the league's worst teams to tank next season, and fewer "free" wins will be available in 2026-27. There is therefore little chance the Thunder make a run at 70 wins again.

Portland Trail Blazers

The prediction: Portland finishes with a top-five defense and a bottom-five offense.

Grade: D+

The Trail Blazers finished 21st in offensive rating and 12th on defense, so they didn't fulfill either part of this two-part prediction. Were they better defensively by a meaningful margin? Sure. But they weren't nearly as lopsided as I anticipated.

Looking ahead to 2026-27:Damian Lillard's return after sitting out the season withan Achilles tear could simultaneously improve Portland's offense and make its defense worse, so the Trail Blazers will likely be more balanced next season.

Still, while a strong defensive foundation exists with Donovan Clingan, Jrue Holiday and Toumani Camara, the offense might need more than just Lillard -- say, another big leap forward from Deni Avdija, or meaningful development from Scoot Henderson -- to reach league average.

San Antonio Spurs

The prediction:Victor Wembanyama will have the NBA's first quadruple-double since David Robinson in 1994, and just the fifth in recorded history.

Grade: D

Wembanyama led the league in blocks for the third straight season, but he never reached double-digit blocks in the regular season (though he tallied 12 in a playoff game against Minnesota). In his lone game with 10 assists, he tallied only a single block.

Put another way, while Wembanyama recorded double-digit points and rebounds in the same game 42 times, achieving a quadruple-double without steals requires at least 20 combined blocks and assists, and Wembanyama's single-game high when combining those stats was 12 (eight assists and four blocks in one game, seven assists and five blocks in another).

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Wembanyama's own reputation might get in the way of this achievement, as his intimidating rim protection prowess means opposing players often veer away from the basket instead of giving him attempts to block. Still, it's difficult to imagine anything he can't accomplish on the basketball court if he sets his mind to it. I'll probably make this exact same bold but realistic prediction again in a few months.

Houston Rockets

The prediction:Alperen Sengun finishes top-10 in MVP voting.

Grade: D

Rather than continuing to improve, Sengun plateaued. He was basically the same player as he had been in previous seasons; his player efficiency rating (21.4) actually was the same both this season and last. That level of production, combined with the Rockets' mediocre fifth-place finish in the West, resulted in nary a single MVP vote.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Do the Rockets just run things back, hoping that a healthy Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams and further development fromAusar Thompsonand Reed Sheppard propel them higher up the conference hierarchy? Or do they think something is fundamentally wrong with their core, and thus more dramatic changes -- like trading Sengun for a different, better-fitting star -- should be on offer?

Utah Jazz

The prediction:Ace Bailey will lead all rookies in scoring.

Grade: D

Bailey finished fifth among rookies, with 13.8 PPG, and a distant 11th in usage rate (21.4%) despite his shot-happy reputation entering the NBA.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Bailey will aim for individual improvements after being named to the All-Rookie second team. But more importantly, the Jazz will look for his fit into more advanced team concepts as they take a big leap forward, after adding Jaren Jackson Jr. and the No. 2 pick in this year's draft.

Bailey might not keep his starting spot next season, if Jackson and eitherAJ Dybantsa or Darryn Petersonleap him in the pecking order, but he should still be an important contributor if the Jazz achieve their goal of returning to the postseason.

Los Angeles Lakers

The prediction: The Lakers fall to the play-in tournament.

Grade: F

This prediction was premised on the Lakers' lack of depth, but they went a respectable 10-8 in games Luka Doncic missed and also weathered absences from Austin Reaves andLeBron James. Los Angeles finished 53-29, a comfortable eight wins ahead of play-in territory.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: This is a crucial offseason for the Lakers, who have to decide whether to bring back free agents Reaves and James -- and for how much money and how many years -- as well as a host of other rotational players.

But as long as Doncic is on the roster and surrounded by a modicum of talent, the Lakers should remain in the playoffs for the foreseeable future. Catching the Thunder and Spurs will be difficult, but slotting into the 3- or 4-seed is a perfectly reasonable goal.

LA Clippers

The prediction:Ivica Zubacfinishes in the top three in Defensive Player of the Year voting.

Grade: F

Zubac was ineligible for postseason awards because he played 48 games (43 with the Clippers), but he wouldn't have contended, anyway. The Clipper-turned-Pacer was noticeably worse on both ends than he was in 2024-25, and the Clippers fell from third to 21st in defensive rating (counting only the period before Zubac was traded).

Looking ahead to 2026-27: The only Clippers big men under guaranteed contracts next season are Isaiah Jackson and rising sophomore Yanic Konan Niederhauser, so they clearly have some work to do to replace Zubac. (Niederhauser is promising, but not ready to pair with Kawhi Leonard to win right away.)

In Indiana, meanwhile, Zubac will be a de facto replacement for Myles Turner as the Pacers zoom back toward contention; he's a worse shot blocker than Turner but a superior defender overall, representing a theoretical upgrade over Indiana's longtime center.

Boston Celtics

The prediction: Boston attempts 70 3-pointers in a non-overtime game.

Grade: F

The Celtics never attempted more than 59 3s in a game, which is actually a smaller high than in 2024-25, when Jayson Tatum was healthy and they took 60-plus in four non-overtime games. Far from relying more on 3-point variance with Tatum injured, the Celtics fell from leading the league in 3-point attempt rate in 2024-25 to ranking fourth in that stat this season.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: The Celtics should always rank among the league leaders in 3-point attempts for as long as Joe Mazzulla is their coach, but they appear more interested in diversifying their offensive approach next season.

"One of the things that we've got to figure out is how to have more of an impact at the rim," president of basketball operations Brad Stevens said after the Celtics' shocking first-round elimination.

Memphis Grizzlies

The prediction:Kentavious Caldwell-Pope outshootsDesmond Banefrom 3-point range.

Grade: F

Caldwell-Pope didn't bounce back outside Orlando; instead, his decline quickened. His 3-point accuracy fell from 41% in his final season in Denver (2023-24) to 34% in Orlando to just 32% in Memphis. For the Magic, meanwhile, Bane stayed steady at 39% from deep.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Expect Caldwell-Pope to exercise his $21.6 million player option this summer; based on his play over the past two seasons, he wouldn't get nearly so much money on the open market. The two-time champ turned 33 in February and hasn't averaged double-digit points since leaving Denver.

Sacramento Kings

The prediction: The Kings will make the play-in tournament.

Grade: F

Oy. I thought the Kings had a decently high floor due to their offensive star power, but Domantas Sabonis played just 19 games and Zach LaVine played 39. Far from reaching the play-in tournament, Sacramento finished with 60 losses, the second most in any season in franchise history.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: Sacramento could consider using 2025-26 as the first season of a full-scale rebuild, ensuring it would finish near the bottom of the standings next year, too. But lottery reform means there's no incentive for the Kings to lose 60 games again, and the team's most talented players could all theoretically return next season. Squint and you might see a path for the Kings to be competitive for the play-in in 2027.

Phoenix Suns

The prediction: Phoenix finishes 14th in the West.

Grade: F

The Suns lost Kevin Durant and improved by nine wins to claim the West's 7-seed. Can I pretend I thought Phoenix would make the play-in tournament and Sacramento would finish at the bottom of the standings, instead of the other way around?

Looking ahead to 2026-27: It remains to be seen whether Phoenix's ceiling is any higher than play-in territory, given that the Suns still don't have incredible talent reserves beyond Devin Booker, nor do they have much draft capital before 2032. But new coach Jordan Ott established a much sturdier floor for this team, so they should still be in contention for a postseason berth next season.

Washington Wizards

The prediction:Cam Whitmore leads the team in scoring.

Grade: F

Whitmore averaged 9.2 PPG in just 21 games before being sidelined because ofdeep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. He finished 16th on the Wizards in total points this season.

Looking ahead to 2026-27: With Trae Young and Anthony Davis on the Wizards now, as well as the No. 1 pick in the 2026 draft, it's safe to say Whitmore won't be in consideration to lead the team in scoring next season, either.

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