Jeff Passan's early 2026 MLB trade deadline preview

Major League Baseball's trade season is fast approaching, and the sport's cramped standings are providing little clarity on who's likeliest to end up where. There are too many contenders -- and too many teams whose dreams of contention remain -- to figure out how this deadline is likely to operate.

At this time last year, remember, the Milwaukee Brewers, who wound up winning a major league-best 97 games, were barely above .500. The New York Mets were a day away from holding the best record in the National League, and they didn't even make the postseason. The best team in baseball was the Detroit Tigers, who snuck into the playoffs via tiebreaker.

And now, following an early-season flop that mirrored their late-season meltdown, the Tigers find themselves the focus of every contender's attention. Each loss draws them closer to divesting at the deadline, which means Tarik Skubal is almost certain to be available and with that there will be a bidding war not seen since Juan Sotowent to theSan Diego Padresin 2022.

Already this was bound to be a complicated deadline because of the potential for labor unrest that could imperil the 2027 season -- and makes valuing players with multiple years of club control that much more difficult. Factor in the belief among some owners that a salary cap and floor are coming, and it could prompt teams that in the past would've dumped everything not tacked down to reevaluate because they don't want to be in a position to reach the floor through free agency's historically inefficient market.

All of it makes for a fascinating confluence of factors leading up to the Aug. 3 deadline. So we tried to make sense of it all, dividing teams into four groups based on their place in the standings as well as their hunger to win now vs. the future. Here is where all 30 teams stand -- and who might make sense for them to unload or acquire.

Jump to team:

American League

ATH|BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE

DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN

NYY|SEA | TB | TEX | TOR

National League

ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL

LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI

PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH

Unloaders

Detroit Tigers

Objective: Secure a franchise-altering return for a franchise-altering player.

Best player available: Tarik Skubal, SP

What to know: Some trade deadlines narrow their focus on one player, and 2026 unquestionably will be The Skubal Deadline. Provided the two-time defending American League Cy Young Award winner returns from his elbow scope healthy and effective, he will be the focus for every contender. It doesn't matter that he's a free agent after the season. The deadline is largely about contenders shoring up pitching staffs, and there's no better bulwark than the best pitcher in the world. And, no, the prorated amount -- around $10 million of his $32 million salary -- will not be an impediment. If you can get Tarik Skubal, you get Tarik Skubal.

The Tigers ridding the stench of 2026 won't stop there. Right-hander Casey Mize, if healthy, is a playoff-rotation-caliber arm.Gleyber Torres' batted-ball metrics (down from 90 mph average exit velocity to 83) and salary ($22.025 million) are hindrances, but he takes good at-bats and plays a fine second base. Somebody could take a flyer on Jack Flaherty (if Detroit pays down some of his $20 million salary). Jake Rogers is a fine backup catcher. All are free agents after this season, as is Justin Verlander, and relievers Kenley Jansen and Drew Anderson have club options for 2027.

Colorado Rockies

Objective: Actually rebuild correctly this time.

Best player available: Antonio Senzatela, RP

What to know: There's plenty the Rockies can do under new president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta. They are years away from contending, and nobody on their roster is untouchable. Though Colorado has treated past deadlines as optional, DePodesta values value, and for Dick Monfort's meddlesome nature as owner, he has relented in recent years (and last deadline OK'd moving Ryan McMahon, whom he had previously instructed his baseball operations personnel not to trade).

All of this means that when Mickey Moniak's right ankle tendinitis abates, he'll be a power bat worth considering. And that for a team with a hole at catcher, Hunter Goodman could be had for a hefty return. And if someone asks about TJ Rumfield or Troy Johnston, it won't be an automatic no because of their long-term controllability. In the case of Senzatela -- who has gone from awful starter to one of the best relievers in baseball this season -- it's a no-brainer. He's a free agent after this season, and he's as good as gone. Others with some interest: utilityman Willi Castro, right-handed starter Tomoyuki Sugano, left-handed reliever Brennan Bernardino and right-handed reliever Jaden Hill.

Kansas City Royals

Objective: Start a retool.

Best player available: Michael Wacha, SP

What to know: The Royals can't totally tear things down, not with Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia locked up long term, but the magic they found in 2024 has dissipated into a puddle of meh. This deadline is an opportunity to turn the team over and figure out how to replicate '24, when Kansas City went from 56 to 86 wins.

Most of their top prospects are at the lower levels, so focusing on near major league-ready talent -- ones who will be there when the Royals move into their new stadium in 2030 or '31 -- makes sense. And the list of desirable veterans is plentiful. Wacha has been tremendous and is under control for two more seasons. Same with Seth Lugo. Kris Bubic could be the best of the bunch -- and the least costly. Kansas City should listen on Cole Ragans. Even Vinnie Pasquantino and Daniel Lynch IV, two years from free agency, could be options

Los Angeles Angels

Objective: Launch a proper rebuild.

Best player available: Reid Detmers, SP

What to know: It's not clear if Detmers is going to be available, though with the state of the Angels -- bad big league team, bad farm system, bad owner -- starting from scratch would be advisable. With the quality of Detmers' stuff this year and peripherals suggesting he's still just scratching the surface of his abilities, the 26-year-old left-hander would be arguably the best controllable player available, not a free agent until after the 2028 season.

Mike Trout should be available, but there's no indication owner Arte Moreno has relented on his unwillingness to move his franchise player. With the failures of a majority of their cheap offseason signings, the Angels are left with Jorge Soler, Kirby Yates and Adam Frazier as their movable free agents. Perhaps they dip into highly controllable players to deepen their future talent pool, but such deals -- whether it's outfielder Jo Adell, who's a year from free agency, or breakout infielder Oswald Peraza or strong-armed relievers Sam Bachman and Ryan Zeferjahn -- are not the sort of thing the Angels have considered in past seasons. It's time they do.

San Francisco Giants

Objective: Build on an interesting top of the farm.

Best player available: Luis Arráez, 2B

What to know: The Giants' offense was legitimately good in May. It had the third-best slugging percentage in MLB, behind only theWashington Nationalsand the New York Yankees. They also went 10-18, the sort of outcome that suggests any thought of adding would just be chasing bad money.

Arráez appropriately rhymes with prize, and he's just that for contending teams that recognize bat-to-ball skills go a long way in the postseason. He's hitting over .300, as usual -- and playing excellent defense at second base on top of that. Robbie Ray can help a rotation down the stretch and maybe in October, too. Same with Tyler Mahle once he gets healthy. The Giants could also flip JT Brubaker or Caleb Kilian, who found an extra 3 mph on his fastball in the bullpen.

All of this is in service of the future, which, with Bryce Eldridge, Josuar González, Jhonny Level and Luis Hernández, gives the Giants the highest-upside system they've had since it was headlined by Brandon Belt and Zack Wheeler.

Miami Marlins

Objective: Prepare to contend in 2027.

Best player available: Sandy Alcántara, SP

What to know: Beyond Alcántara and closer Pete Fairbanks, the Marlins' next-highest-paid player is Giancarlo Stanton, who last played for them in 2017. There is a legitimate chance that after the deadline, Stanton tops the list. Now would seem to finally be the time for Miami to move Alcántara, who remains somewhat anomalous with a fastball that sits at 98 mph and a strikeout rate that ranks 67th of 72 qualified starters.

Nevertheless, there's enough in the arm to dream on Alcántara returning to his elite self. Just how much of a premium Miami can get with a $21 million club option for 2027 is not yet clear, and considering the number of solid starting arms that could be available, the Marlins aren't necessarily looking at a return of multiple top prospects. They're still in talent-gathering mode, which makes Fairbanks and other relievers (Lake Bachar, John King, Anthony Bender and late-blooming Michael Petersen) candidates to move as well.

Tweeners

St. Louis Cardinals

Objective: Do not mortgage the future to uphold an unsustainable present.

Best player potentially available:Lars Nootbaar, OF

What to know: The Cardinals' recent swoon has dropped them out of the final NL playoff spot, and even though this season has been a rousing success in terms of solidifying St. Louis' future, this is no time to chase a playoff spot. Considering the upward trajectory of the farm system, the Cardinals under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom are highly unlikely to add at the deadline.

As far as subtracting ... well, they pretty much did that all winter. Which has left them with a paucity of clear candidates to move. Nootbaar hasn't played yet this season, but he's a high-on-base outfielder who can play some center and has another year of club control. JoJo Romero will almost certainly move, as every team can use left-handed relief help, and Dustin May -- St. Louis' only other impending free agent -- could as well. The question multiple teams have: Will the Cardinals cash in on their excellent closerRiley O'Brien, who has four years of control remaining beyond this season but is 31 years old.

Boston Red Sox

Objective: Ensure that this team really is as mediocre as it looks.

Best player potentially available:Aroldis Chapman, RP

What to know: The Red Sox want to believe they can claw their way back into contention, and in the AL, anything is possible. But the hole they've dug themselves, combined with the lack of high-end relief pitching available at the deadline, puts Boston in the driver's seat to control that segment of the trade market. And seeing what contending teams are willing to pay for top-end relief arms, Chapman could generate an excellent return for a free agent-to-be, and Garrett Whitlock could be among the best right-handed options should he return healthy from a knee injury.

The Red Sox do have plenty of players with expiring contracts: utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa, veteran left-hander Danny Coulombe and Patrick Sandoval, who's expected back soon after sitting out the past two years following internal brace surgery. Boston could consider moving right-hander Sonny Gray, though teams will balk at the cost (more than $10 million in salary, plus a $5 million buyout on an option). It's less prohibitive but still true for first baseman Willson Contreras, who,could be a popular target considering the dearth of impact bats, has a full no-trade clause. And while teams will continue to ask about outfielder Jarren Duran, the difference between how Boston and potential suitors value him remains steep.

New York Mets

Objective: Wait to get healthy before making any decisions.

Best player potentially available:Freddy Peralta, SP

What to know: The Mets have a enough whisps of life left in them that president of baseball operations David Stearns will let Francisco Lindor, Francisco Alvarez, Jorge Polanco and Kodai Senga return and then take account of where the team finds itself. Right now, it's grim: last place in the NL East, behind Washington and Miami to say nothing of Atlanta and Philadelphia. And with the compensation for potentially losing Peralta in free agency not close to what he'd demand on the trade market, moving him before Aug. 3 makes the most sense.

Brooks Raley and A.J. Minter would be among the best left-handed relief arms out there, and with free agency awaiting both this winter, they would be near the top of many teams' wish lists. Huascar Brazoban wouldn't be far behind. On the offensive side, the pickings are slimmer: Luis Robert Jr. is hurt, Tyrone Taylor is a backup,Mark Vientos' value has cratered and everyone else is either staying put or not worth the time. The arms could make it a productive deadline for the Mets, but they need far more to salvage a team that has done nothing but disappoint.

Baltimore Orioles

Objective: Consider anything on the table.

Best player potentially available:Taylor Ward, OF

What to know: The Orioles have spent much of the season toiling around .500. They went six weeks without winning three in a row before recently sweeping Tampa Bay. Looking for signs of life, their heartbeat is just audible enough to keep waiting and hope something changes, because what they have right now isn't good enough and their clearly tradable players aren't exactly distinguishing themselves.

Ward has been excellent at drawing walks, trailing only Trout and Nick Kurtz, and he can play corner outfield well enough to generate interest. The rest of Baltimore's expiring deals, though? Trevor Rogers, so good last year, is a mess.Chris Bassitt's strikeouts have dipped precipitously and he has an ERA over 5.00.Andrew Kittredge's slider isn't sliding. Keegan Akin is a nonentity. Ryan Mountcastle hasn't played in almost two months. With a farm system decidedly down from its peak, the Orioles, opposing executives say, could cash in on veteranRico Garcia's excellent start and deal the 32-year-old, similar to St. Louis' calculus with O'Brien. A potential Adley Rutschman trade is more likely a winter conversation.

Washington Nationals

Objective: Hunt every avenue of value.

Best player potentially available:CJ Abrams, SS

What to know: As tempting as it might be for the Nationals to trade Abrams seemingly at his peak -- especially considering shortstop is a weak link for so many contenders (Milwaukee, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, New York) -- it would take an overwhelming offer for Washington to consider it. Maybe that materializes. Abrams is 25, has two years of club control beyond this season, and franchise-talent shortstops don't materialize out of nowhere. At the same time, Eli Willits -- the No. 1 pick in last year's draft -- looks as if he's going to move through the system very quickly, and with the previous year's first-round pick, Seaver King, at Triple-A and on the doorstep, a ready-made replacement is there.

Beyond Abrams, left-hander Foster Griffin, signed for just $5.5 million after three excellent seasons in Japan, throws seven pitches in a cutter-heavy arsenal. At the end of the day, he's a backend starter, but there's value in the versatility and ability to eat innings, even if he gives up too many home runs. Zack Littell is in the same boat, ultimately a depth arm, and though Washington has plenty of controllable bullpen options, they're all second- and third-tier types, only tempting if the market dries up.

Minnesota Twins

Objective: Assess the market and be open to another bloodletting.

Best player potentially available:Byron Buxton, CF

What to know: For all of owner Tom Pohlad's bluster about wanting to compete this year, the Twins do not look the part of playoff contender, even in an AL Central that's arguably the worst division in baseball. Minnesota could just hold, get Pablo Lopez back from Tommy John surgery around Opening Day next season and take another run at the Central. Or it could do an encore of the last deadline, when it turned in an all-time deadline performance: 10 players traded, $26 million shed, a teardown of the highest order.

Any potential deal involving Buxton remains theoretical until he waives his no-trade clause, so the "potentially" in "potentially available" is doing a lot of work. And even then, the Twins also would need to want to move him, so plenty needs to happen to make that a reality. Dealing right-hander Joe Ryan would involve no such hoops to jump through, and considering he was a big part of trade talks last year, it's very realistic, even though Ryan is not a free agent until after the 2027 season. Catcher Ryan Jeffers was also in the trade-talk mix last year -- and could be again this year, provided his recovery from a broken hamate bone doesn't sap his power. Otherwise, the only clear candidate to be moved is left-handed reliever Taylor Rogers.

Houston Astros

Objective: Be realistic about this team and its future.

Best player potentially available:Jeremy Peña, SS

What to know: Owner Jim Crane will not punt until it's abundantly clear the Astros should. One could argue that's already the case, but Houston is just five games back of first place in the AL West and recently returned closerJosh Haderfrom the injured list. Ace Hunter Brown isn't far off, and Jose Altuve is on the mend as well, and soon enough the Astros will be as close to full strength as they're going to be this season.

Is that enough? Because if it's not, Houston at the very least ought to explore moving Peña, a 28-year-old All-Star who will hit free agency following the 2027 season. The Astros at one point believed they had an extension with Peña done, but it fell apart when he hired agent Scott Boras, who has taken past Astros infielders elsewhere in free agency due in part to Crane's reticence to offer deals longer than six years.

Houston could launch an overnight retool were it willing to deal AL MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez, but opposing executives don't see that happening. The lack of available power bats could make first baseman Christian Walker or third baseman Isaac Paredes a tempting acquisition, but hitters tend to have fewer in-season suitors, leaving marginal relievers (Bryan Abreu, Steven Okert, Enyel De Los Santos) the likeliest Astros to move.

Could acquire, but ...

Cleveland Guardians

Objective: Win a third consecutive AL Central.

If they were to unload someone, it could be:Rhys Hoskins, 1B

If they were to get someone, it could be:Mickey Moniak, OF

What to know: As always, the Guardians have built a team in which the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. It helps to have a pair of starting pitchers in Gavin Williams and Parker Messick who could anchor almost every rotation in the big leagues. And the offense is far better than last season, even in a relative off-year for Jose Ramirez. Rookies Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter are the real deal, and adding a bat like Moniak would be perfect for the Guardians: He contract won't cost much in salary ($4 million) or prospects, he can spell Steven Kwan in center field and even if he was doing most of his damage at Coors Field before he was injured, the 28-year-old would add to the Guardians' slug that ranks 27th in MLB.

With a deep farm system that's thriving this season, the Guardians have the ability to get anyone not named Skubal. That's not how the Guardians operate, and though they should be in the next grouping, a straight-up acquirer, nothing about Cleveland's history suggests this year will be any different.

Chicago White Sox

Objective: Finish over .500.

If they were to unload someone, it could be:Sean Newcomb, RP

If they were to get someone, it could be: Reid Detmers, SP

What to know: It has been an objectively excellent season for the White Sox, who had the signing of the winter in Munetaka Murakami, the season's two biggest breakouts in right-hander Davis Martin and third baseman Miguel Vargas, and rookie successes in outfielders Sam Antonacci and Tristan Peters -- and it's just a matter of time before top prospect Braden Montgomery joins them in Chicago.

The weakness is starting pitching depth. Is Chicago good enough to chase a free agent to be like Peralta? Probably not. But a starter with multiple years of control, like Detmers -- who would be a perfect fit, and for whom the White Sox could dip into a system soon to be infused with the No. 1 pick in the draft -- or Alcántara or Wacha or Lugo? That makes sense to try to steal a playoff spot this year and, especially in cases of control through 2028 (Detmers, Wacha and Lugo), for forthcoming seasons.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Objective: Make the postseason.

If they were to unload someone, it could be:Carmen Mlodzinski, SP

If they were to get someone, it could be: Ryan Jeffers, C

What to know: Barring a rough June -- which is not entirely out of the realm of possibility with upcoming series against the Braves, Dodgers, Mariners and Phillies -- the Pirates will add at the deadline. Their rotation is already good enough to have squeezed Mlodzinski out. Their bullpen could use another power arm, though Gregory Soto, Mason Montgomery and rookie Wilber Dotel are high-octane options. The most glaring weakness right now is at catcher, where they've cycled through Joey Bart, Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez. And though Rodriguez's capacity to draw walks is promising, a Jeffers acquisition wouldn't be prohibitively expensive and would help balance a lineup that's already very lefty heavy, with Brandon Lowe, Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz and Ryan O'Hearn. Using Jeffers as a catcher and designated hitter would give Pittsburgh's already-dangerous lineup that much more thump.

Toronto Blue Jays

Objective: Get back to the 2025 version of themselves.

If they were to unload someone, it could be:Kevin Gausman, SP

If they were to get someone, it could be: Sandy Alcántara, SP

What to know: Since winning the American League last year and falling just shy of a World Series title, the Blue Jays have been positively OK. Decimated by injuries, they find themselves as a very weird tweener: Talented enough to consider going out and getting rotation help, average enough so far that sending away an impending free agent such as Gausman is not entirely farfetched.

The Blue Jays are far from that point, though, and they're the sort of team capable of making up significant-enough ground over the next two months not only to put themselves among the acquirers but to throw their hat in the ring for Skubal or Peralta. They're not there yet, either, which is why Alcántara -- who could replace Gausman in the rotation if he leaves in free agency this winter -- makes sense. Despite their struggles, the Blue Jays find themselves only one game out of the final wild-card spot in the AL, and with a cavalcade of players set to come off the injured list -- Dylan Cease, Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger, Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer -- Toronto is primed for a resurgence.

Cincinnati Reds

Objective: Stop living at .500 and play like a playoff team.

If they were to unload someone, it could be:Brock Burke, RP

If they were to get someone, it could be: Taylor Ward, OF

What to know: Things aren't great in Cincinnati. Elly De La Cruz is on the injured list, where he joined ace Hunter Greene. Greene's replacement at the top of the rotation, the magnificent Chase Burns, could be subject to an innings limit. Outside of JJ Bleday, the Reds' outfield has been underwhelming. So while the tea leaves suggest they might be more on the side of offloading -- in addition to the left-handed Burke, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe, slugger Eugenio Suarez and free-agent-to-be Caleb Ferguson could draw interest -- if Cincinnati leapfrogs back into playoff contention, Ward bringing his high on-base percentage to the top of the Reds' lineup would give De La Cruz, Bleday and Sal Stewart plenty of RBI opportunities.

Athletics

Objective: Wake up offensively.

If they were to unload someone, it could be:Jeff McNeil, 2B/OF

If they were to get someone, it could be: Kris Bubic, SP

What to know: The A's have occupied first place in the AL West more than any team this season, which, perhaps, says more about the West than it does the A's. Regardless, their relative underachievement on offense is the biggest disappointment, and if even one or two of their struggling hitters -- on the list: Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler and the injured Jacob Wilson -- gets right, a lineup with Nick Kurtz and Shea Langeliers playing like stars can be good enough to carry the A's.

That said, pitching is still their foremost external priority. Seeing as a .500-or-so team won't be in the business of overpaying at the deadline, a temporary option like Bubic -- injured multiple times over the past two years but excellent when he's on the field -- fits the A's budget and would give them a rotation of Bubic, Jeffrey Springs and three talented young arms in J.T. Ginn and rookies Gage Jump and Kade Morris.

Texas Rangers

Objective: Score some runs.

If they were to unload someone, it could be:Joc Pederson, DH

If they were to get someone, it could be: Luis Arráez, 2B

What to know: Certainly getting back outfielder Wyatt Langford and shortstop Corey Seager -- both on rehab assignments at Double-A -- will help with the run-scoring mess. Even then, Arráez would cut into Texas' 23% strikeout rate as well as shore up a second-base position that hasn't been a strength. Even with Langford and Seager back and Ezequiel Duran playing well, the Rangers could slot Arráez at second or first base and lock him in atop the lineup.

As long as the Rangers keep pitching the way they have, they won't find themselves far out of contention. Their rotation, headlined by Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and MacKenzie Gore, is one of the best in the big leagues. Their no-name bullpen has been money, same as last year, even if their peripherals suggest a coming regression. It's still not their biggest issue. Like last year, when they ranked 22nd in runs scored, or the year before, when it was 18th, Texas' offense simply hasn't done what it needs to.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Objective: Add talent on the margins to a solid foundation.

If they were to unload someone, it could be:A.J. Puk, RP

If they were to get someone, it could be: Garrett Whitlock, RP

What to know: The Diamondbacks have thrust themselves into a very interesting position. Not only are they playing good baseball, Puk is on a rehab assignment, Justin Martinez is throwing andCorbin Burnes has faced live hitters, though a lat strain pushed back his return from Tommy John surgery to September. Any of the three would provide an immediate boost to a pitching staff that could use some punchouts. Which is why Whitlock makes the most sense for them: He can close if need be or, at very least, help form a committee with Puk. If the Diamondbacks would prefer a little more left-handedness, Chapman works, too.

Either way, with Eduardo Rodriguez and Michael Soroka pitching well, and Tommy Troy and Ryan Waldschmidtably filling the other two outfield spots alongside the magnificent Corbin Carroll, Arizona is solid across the board and capable of taking a playoff spot in a very competitive NL landscape. And should they get there, lest we forget: The Diamondbacks are the last team to beat the Dodgers in the postseason.

Acquirers

Atlanta Braves

Objective: Swing big.

Best fit: Tarik Skubal (or CJ Abrams)

What to know: The Braves have been the best team in baseball this season, something of a stunning outcome considering their inconsistency over the previous two seasons and the spate of injuries that bludgeoned their rotation this spring. Well, one of those arms, Hurston Waldrep, is on a rehab assignment. Another, Spencer Schwellenbach, is throwing. And A.J. Smith-Shawver, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year, is ramping up bullpens. It's not out of the question for all three to rejoin Atlanta by the end of the season.

So why Skubal? Because he's Skubal. And because all those young arms -- not to mention J.R. Ritchie and Cam Caminiti in the minor leagues, and Didier Fuentes at the big league level -- give them the firepower to get him. To beat the Dodgers, teams need to assemble a wrecking crew that can go toe-to-toe with the first back-to-back World Series champions in a quarter-century. Starting a series with Skubal and Chris Sale -- and having Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder to fill out the rotation -- is quite a place to begin.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Objective: Get healthy by October.

Best fit: Tarik Skubal (or Riley O'Brien)

What to know: The Dodgers boast the second-best record in baseball and they're not close to firing on all cylinders. Mookie Betts has been bad. Kyle Tucker has been whatever. Their best offensive players, outside ofShohei Ohtani(who recently righted himself), have been Andy Pages and Max Muncy. Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell are on the injured list, along with Teoscar Hernandez. And yet the Dodgers persist.

When given the opportunity to acquire the best players in baseball, Los Angeles does not hesitate. Paying a premium price for a short-term contract goes against how they prefer to operate, but the Dodgers have built such a good farm system -- and one that, heavy on controllable arms and dynamic outfielders, matches up perfectly with Detroit's needs -- that it makes too much sense for them not to be involved in the discussions. It ends up one of two places: They get the best pitcher in the world, or they drive up the price for others already struggling to keep up with them. And if the latter is the outcome, using a player or two to get O'Brien as insurance for injured closer Edwin Díaz -- and having him be the long-term replacement for Blake Treinen, with a filthy sinker-slider combination -- is a worthwhile pivot.

Tampa Bay Rays

Objective: Win a World Series for the first time.

Best fit: Tarik Skubal (or Freddy Peralta)

What to know: When the Rays like their team, president of baseball operations Erik Neander is not afraid to dip into his prospect well and get a little loose. There is, of course, the infamous trade that wasn't: the Angels could have had Junior Caminero and Carson Williams for a second-half Shohei Ohtani in 2023 but decided to hold on to him and wound up with only a draft pick after the second round. And in the actually-did-happen realm, Tampa Bay gave up Joe Ryan to get Nelson Cruz in 2021.

Just how in the Rays will be this time depends on the next six weeks. They've certainly got the minor league talent to poach Skubal or Peralta. And they've got the need, too, with the Yankees ready to run out a postseason rotation of Cam Schlittler, Max Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon. Complementing Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Nick Martinez with Skubal or Peralta would go a long way toward mitigating New York's advantage. The Rays still need their offensive big three (Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda) to mash, and they could use one more bat and one more bullpen arm, but the foundation is there to support whatever the Rays choose to do.

Milwaukee Brewers

Objective: Beat the Dodgers.

Best fit: Tarik Skubal (or Byron Buxton)

What to know: Nobody operates with the discipline and precision of the Brewers, which is why having them in this category -- let alone linking them with the best player on the market and another who probably isn't going anywhere -- registers so oddly. The Brewers? The Milwaukee Brewers? Going out and winning the deadline? It's a conceit so foreign it's almost laughable.

But just think about it. Tarik Skubal in Game 1, Jacob Misiorowski in Game 2, Kyle Harrison in Game 3. Or, if that's not in the cards, Byron Buxton bringing his 17 home runs to the team with the fewest in the big leagues. It's not the move a disciplined team makes, but then this same team got dog-walked by the Dodgers in the NLCS last year, and it's not so myopic that it ignores what Misiorowski and Harrison are doing. The Brewers have the best farm system in baseball. Their minor league infield talent alone -- the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball, Jesús Made, along with Luis Peña, Andrew Fischer, Cooper Pratt, Jett Williams, Luke Adams, Blake Burke and Brady Ebel -- is better than perhaps half of the entire systems in the game. They can do this. For once, they just need to not be themselves.

New York Yankees

Objective: Win a championship for the first time since 2009.

Best fit: Tarik Skubal (or Isaac Paredes)

What to know: If anyone doesn't need Skubal, it's the Yankees. And yet the moment Skubal officially becomes available, the Yankees will gauge the cost, because even if you don't need something, that doesn't mean you don't want it.

In an ideal world, New York is training its focus on a third baseman (Paredes is by far the best option) or shortstop (depending on how the Anthony Volpe/Jose Caballero time-share works). With that the case, the Yankees could use some power arms to complement David Bednar and Camilo Doval in the bullpen ... and those might come internally, via flamethrowing Carlos Lagrange (currently transitioning to a bullpen role at Triple-A) or starters with no clear rotation spot in the postseason (potentially Ryan Weathers, Will Warren and the returning Clarke Schmidt). And then there's the matter ofAaron Judge's balky shoulder, which will be among the foremost storylines to track until Aug. 3.

Chicago Cubs

Objective: Salvage their season in time to do work at the deadline.

Best fit: Tarik Skubal (or any frontline starting pitcher, really)

What to know: The Cubs need an ace. As much of a godsend as Ben Brown has been, their rotation -- even with the returns of Edward Cabrera and Matthew Boyd from the injured list this weekend -- could use a legitimate stopper. The Dodgers have multiple, as do the Phillies, the Brewers and the Pirates. The Cubs have a cadre of starters good enough to get them to the postseason, but once they're there, the matchups simply don't favor them.

So, yeah, if Skubal costs Matt Shaw, it's the price to pay. If Detroit would prefer Moises Ballesteros, so be it. If the Tigers want both, it shouldn't be dismissed outright. Of all the teams in this tier, the Cubs have the most to gain by adding Skubal. This is, despite what they've shown over the past three weeks -- dropping from 27-12 to 32-30 -- a team eminently capable of playing with the best in baseball. With change on the horizon due to a handful of free agents, spending on a short-term acquisition is a dodgy way to do business. But nobody beats the Dodgers by accident. And the same aggressiveness that pushed Chicago to get Kyle Tucker for the 2025 season shouldn't abate simply because he didn't play to their expectations.

Seattle Mariners

Objective: Get to the World Series for the first time in their 50-year history

Best fit: Tarik Skubal (or Rico Garcia)

What to know: Hold on. The team with six good-to-great starting pitchers and arguably the best right- and left-handed pitching prospects in all of baseball (Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson) should go and get ... another starter? Yes. Even if it costs them one of those six starters already in the big leagues. If this doesn't make sense by now, you haven't been listening. Skubal is the sort of player who can win a team a series. And that includes the World Series -- something the Mariners have spent half a century chasing fruitlessly. So when the opportunity to get a player like that is ripe, you get the player.

If not that, though, then Seattle could do worse than finding someone with right-handed pop who can play outfield (Jo Adell?) or getting Garcia, who is already on his seventh big league spot. As great as Andres Munoz, Matt Brash and Gabe Speier are, another effective bullpen arm would ensure that in leverage situations, manager Dan Wilson isn't in a spot in which he believes Eduard Bazardo is his best option, as was the case when he served up a pennant-losing home run to George Springer in Game 7 of the ALCS last year.

Philadelphia Phillies

Objective: Make the postseason.

Best fit: Tarik Skubal (or Taylor Ward)

What to know: Considering how good Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh have been, it's embarrassing that the Phillies have scored fewer runs than Kansas City and Boston. It's not that the remainder of Philadelphia's offense is slightly below average. It's that the other six have been downright bad. And so while, yes, a rotation of Skubal, Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo would be the unquestioned best in baseball, it's fair to wonder how the Phillies plan to salvage their offense.

Contreras would be great ... if he didn't play the same positions as Schwarber and Harper. There's Paredes, who could replace Alec Bohm at third base. But seeing as left and right field have been hazmat areas for the Phillies, Ward fits snugly into either spot as well as atop a lineup with Schwarber second, Harper third and Marsh on cleanup duty. More needs to be done, but that would be a good start for a team with as many everyday holes as the Phillies.

San Diego Padres

Objective: Keep poking the voodoo doll keeping them in contention.

Best fit: Tarik Skubal (or any starting pitcher, really)

What to know: By all objective measures, the Padres should be in the previous category. Their offense is the worst in baseball. Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts all have an OPS below .700. Ty France has been the best offensive player for the Padres this year. The same Ty France the Mariners cut a year ago. To be well over .500 with this sort of an offense is a testament to San Diego's mighty bullpen, which remains the best in baseball.

For all the offensive foibles, the Padres find themselves pot committed with all of their everyday players on the struggle bus also signed to huge long-term contracts. The avenue for tangible change, then, is through a rotation waylaid by injury. The Padres don't know what they're going to get out of Joe Musgrove. They don't know what they're going to get out of Nick Pivetta, who, like Musgrove, is on the 60-day IL. If neither is able to contribute, that puts even more of an onus on president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, who has rebuilt his farm system enough to make the kind of trade that can keep San Diego on its current path: toward a postseason run.

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