'TNF' betting: Expect Broncos to hold Raiders in check, Bo Nix to top rushing prop

Week 10of the NFL season kicks off with theLas Vegas Raiders visiting the Denver Broncoson "Thursday Night Football."

The Raiders nearly upset the Jacksonville Jaguars last week but fell to 2-6 following a 30-29 loss. Those two teams also worked out a trade this week, with Jakobi Meyers getting shipped to the Jaguars.

Meanwhile, Denver ran its win streak to six games with an 18-15 win on the road against the Houston Texans.

The Broncos are near double-digit favorites against the rival Raiders on Thursday night.

Matt Bowen, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet the game.

Note: Odds at time of publication. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET Sportsbook.

Game bets

Maldonado: Denver ranks top three in points per drive allowed, leads the league in sack differential and holds opponents to a 28% third-down rate.Geno Smith's turnover issues under pressure make sustained drives for the Raiders nearly impossible. Even if Brock Bowers goes off again, the ceiling is still capped. The profiles align perfectly: a steady Broncos defense versus an inefficient Raiders offense.

Notable player props, bets

Bowen: Nix has the second reaction ability to create outside of structure as a runner, and the numbers work here. Nix has topped 21 rushing yards in five of his last seven games. I like the over on Thursday night.

Moody: It might surprise some, but Franklin leads the Broncos in targets with 64 (two more than Courtland Sutton) and in air yards. He has cleared this line in only four of nine games but is in a favorable spot against a Raiders defense that allows the fifth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. Las Vegas has allowed only one receiver to top 100 yards in a game this season, but Franklin's lower line compared to Sutton's makes him the smarter play. It's a great setup for him to deliver at home.

Walder: With 5.0 sacks on the year already, it looks on the surface like Allen is following up his huge 2024 campaign with another similar season. The advanced metrics disagree, however. Allen's pass-rush win rate at defensive tackle dropped from 15% last year to 8%, and his pass-rush get-off has slowed slightly from 0.91 seconds to 0.97 seconds. As a result, my model prices this under at -233.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• The Raiders are 0-3 against the spread in their last three road games.


• The Broncos are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2024.


• The Broncos are4-0 home games in 2025 and 6-0 against teams with losing records.


• The Raiders are1-4 following a loss in 2025 and1-4 ATS last in their last five against teams with winning records.

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