NFL trade deadline grades: DeForest Buckner, Quenton Nelson dealt by Colts, more

NFL analysts Ben Solak and Seth Walder are grading deals ahead of the 2026 trade deadline, which is Nov. 10 at 4 p.m. ET.

When grading trades, we evaluate them for each team based on on-field impact, cap implications, draft compensation and effects within the context of a team's overall short- and long-term outlooks. How confident are we in knowing if this is a good or bad decision? And how big is the impact of this decision? Both questions play a role in our grades, though a low-impact decision can still receive a strong or poor grade. Even with lower stakes, clear-cut wins or losses still matter.

Here are our evaluations for the first deals of trading season, including the Colts sending guard Quenton Nelson to Seattle and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner to San Francisco. Check back through the deadline forgrades on the biggest moves.

Jump to a trade:

Buckner |Nelson | Harrison

Jurgens|Porter | McCarthy

Colts trade DT Buckner to 49ers

49ers get: DT DeForest Buckner

Colts get: 2027 fourth-round pick

49ers grade: A-

Colts grade: B-

As soon as the Colts emerged as a team that might engage in a trade-deadline teardown, it wasn't hard to see the dots connecting Buckner back to the 49ers. That became a reality Tuesday.

Though his numbers have dipped, Buckner, 32, can still help the 49ers get after the quarterback. He has four sacks this season, but his pass rush win rate ranked in the 45th percentile among defensive tackles, alongside a 69th percentile pressure rate. That is a drop from last season, when he was in the 90th and 88th percentile in those metrics, respectively. However, that 2025 performance is a positive sign for what he could bring to the 49ers the rest of this season.

Extra pass-rushing help will be welcome in San Francisco, which ranks 19th in pass rush win rate. The 49ers have been without Nick Bosa, who has been out because ofa calf injury since Week 3 but is expected to return soon. Their pass defense is the only one of their major units (run and pass on offense and defense) that ranks outside the top seven in EPA per play (13th).

I'll admit I'm a little surprised the 49ers made this move considering they already have Osa Odighizuwa as a pass-rush-first defensive tackle. But he can play next to Buckner -- especially on passing downs. Also, San Francisco's rash of defensive line injuries makes any help welcome.

This type of roster-bolstering move makes sense for San Francisco. The 49ers are the Super Bowl favorites, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. In fact, they are the favorites by a lot, with the FPI giving them a 23% chance to win the Super Bowl (every other team is below 11%). Adding Buckner to reinforce those chances is worthwhile.

The cost was also quite reasonable. The 49ers are surrendering a fourth-round pick and taking over the prorated remainder of Buckner's $13 million salary, assuming his contract is untouched. While compensatory picks are never a guarantee, there's a decent chance that San Francisco might recoup most of that draft capital back via a comp pick if Buckner signs elsewhere in free agency next offseason, especially given that San Francisco is low on 2027 cap space.

That also is why I'm a little critical of the Colts' move here. Don't get me wrong, it absolutely makes sense for Indianapolis to trade him. The Colts are rebuilding, and Buckner is a 32-year-old in the final year of his contract -- of course they should have dealt him before the deadline.

Perhaps this was the best offer Indianapolis received for Buckner today, but they also didn't have to trade Buckner right now. There are two weeks left until the Nov. 10 trade deadline. I would have thought they could have at least squeezed another Day 3 pick in addition to the fourth-rounder. -- Walder

Colts trade G Nelson to Seahawks

Seahawks get: G Quenton Nelson

Colts get: 2027 third-round pick, 2028 fifth-round pick

Seahawks grade: A-

Colts grade: B+

The reimagination of the Colts is officially underway, with longtime Indianapolis stalwart Nelson heading to the defending Super Bowl champions to bolster the interior of their offensive line.

Nelson, 30, started his career with three consecutive first-team All-Pro selections. His level of play dropped in 2022 and 2023, but the 2018 first-round pick battled back to elite form in 2024, when he posted pass block and run block win rates that were each in the 90th percentile, along with earning second-team All-Pro honors. He earned a second-team All-Pro spot last season, too, along with a 91st percentile and 74th percentile pass block and run block win rates, respectively.

His win rates haven't been quite as strong this season (66th and 37th percentile, respectively), but Nelson's reputation is still superb, and having such consistent results the previous two years suggests he probably remains one of the best guards in the league if we're projecting the rest of the season.

The Seahawks presumably will keep Nelson at left guard and move Grey Zabel to right guard. That will push Anthony Bradford, who recently returned from injured reserve and has played two games this season, to the bench. Bradford recorded 30th and 33rd percentile pass block and run block win rates last season, respectively, so Nelson is a substantial upgrade.

The Seahawks have Super Bowl aspirations but must get better play out of an offense that ranks 26th in EPA per play and 31st in EPA per designed rush. They rank 27th in run block win rate, 28th in yards per designed running back carry (3.6) and 28th in yards before contact on designed run plays. They also rank 21st in pass block win rate. So the team needed some offensive line help and upgrading their right guard or center made sense.

Nelson is on an expiring contract, so unless his deal was altered, the Seahawks will take on the prorated remainder of his $16 million in salary for this season, which is a bargain for the quality of play he brings. The Seahawks could sign Nelson to an extension or a new deal after the season, but they couldalso let him walk in free agency and possibly collect a compensatory pick to mitigate the draft capital lost in this trade.

It makes a lot of sense for the Seahawks to push their chips in on their current team. History tells us how hard it is to sustain elite defensive success, so the Seahawks need to take advantage while they have it.

This was also an easily logical move for the Colts. The 2026 season is lost, and Nelson is a pending free agent. Whatever value he would bring to the team in the second half of the season pales in comparison to what he brings to the Seahawks, and the draft capital return is more than they would get in compensatory picks (which are never a guarantee, anyway) had Nelson left in free agency. Plus, they save money on the remainder of his 2026 salary.

Ultimately, this is a win-win trade. Considering Seattle's contention window, positional (and overall offensive) need, the draft capital required and Nelson's contract, this is a sound move. -- Walder

Cardinals trade WR Harrison Jr. to Texans

Texans get: WRMarvin Harrison Jr., 2027 seventh-round pick

Cardinals get: 2027 second-round pick, 2027 sixth-round pick

Texans grade: C+

Cardinals: A-

Minutes after the Texans completed their 26-3 blowout win over theTitans, news broke that the rumored trade of Harrison, who was inactive Sunday because of the expected move, would be completed. The Cardinals sent him to Houston for a second-rounder and a sixth-rounder in 2027.

Similar to a lot of trades for young players, there are two simple questions: How much of our opinion of Harrison should be shaped by the league's predraft opinion of him and how much should be based on what we've seen from him in the NFL so far?

Harrison was considered a premier wide receiver prospect and was the first non-quarterback off the board with the fourth pick in the 2024 draft. But his production has fallen well short of those expectations to date, with Harrison amassing 1,578 receiving yards over 33 career games.

That equates to 1.5 yards per route run, which is in the 46th percentile among wide receivers who have run at least 15 routes per team game in that span. That number has been even worse in a small sample this season: just 0.6 yards per route run with a much higher percentage of deep fades and go routes (24%) than the previous two seasons (13%). Harrison's player-tracking metrics have been mediocre but not awful during his first two seasons: 47 and 54 overall in ESPN's receiver scores (with slightly better open scores) in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Despite a rough start, the 1-4 Texans probably still believe they have a Super Bowl-caliber defense and a chance for a postseason run if they can get more talent around quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has been playing well. I don't think that's far-fetched despite their record. This is not the Texans' first attempt to upgrade at wide receiver. After second-year man Jayden Higgins suffered a torn ACL in August, Houston acquiredKayshon Boutte from the Patriots. But Boutte has managed only 1.1 yards per route run despite Nico Collinsmissing two games.

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The Texans will get Harrison for cheap for the rest of this season and next year, and they will have a fifth-year option on him for 2028. But this move is not worth it if Harrison remains the same player he has been with the Cardinals because second-round picks have real value. Receivers who average 1.5 yards per route run can be found quite easily. The Texans are betting that Harrison can reach the upside he showed at Ohio State, including a breakout season in 2022 when Stroud was his quarterback. Having already played two-plus NFL seasons, the chances of a breakout aren't great, but they exist.

I think this trade makes sense for Arizona. The Cardinals didn't have to trade Harrison yet, but he will be worth more to a contending team than he is to them. It's likely his trade value would sink if they waited until the offseason to deal him. And Michael Wilson already had established himself as Arizona's No. 1 receiver.

Ultimately, I would not have made this trade if I were the Texans because the odds of Harrison breaking out immediately feel too low to justify the compensation. But I at least understand the thought process and desire to maximize a loaded roster's chances of making a real run to make the playoffs and win postseason games. -- Walder

Eagles trade C Jurgens to Ravens

Ravens get: C Cam Jurgens, 2027 seventh-round pick

Eagles get: 2027 fifth-round pick, 2028 second-round pick

Ravens grade: D+

Eagles grade: A

First, Tyler Linderbaum walked in free agency. Then the Ravens lost Jovaughn Gwyn and Ethan Pocic to injury, suddenly leaving them without a center. Last week, Baltimore moved first-round rookie guard Olaivavega Ioane to center but evidently doesn't see that as a long-term option.

So Baltimore turned to the trade market and dealt for Jurgens. It's an interesting and unusual move, because Jurgens is no stopgap. He's only 27 years old and is already on a long-term deal after signing an extension with the Eagles in 2025.

Jurgens moved from center to left guard in Week 2 after the Eagles placed guard Landon Dickerson on injured reserve. It has not gone well. Jurgens ranks in the bottom three in both pass block and run block win rate at guard. But the Ravens are trading for Jurgens to have him play center.

In 2024, Jurgens was a Pro Bowl center who recorded pass block and run block win rates in the 80th and 50th percentiles, respectively. He made the Pro Bowl again in 2025, but his numbers slipped to the 65th and 39th percentile, respectively. He should be a stabilizing force for the Ravens -- perhaps an average to above-average center -- at what has suddenly become a position of need. But the cost is exorbitant.

The Ravens are surrendering a second-round pick (plus a swap of fifth- and seventh-round picks) for the right to pay a non-premium position player market price after this season. Jurgens is due a fully guaranteed $16 million next year. He's due $17 million (non-guaranteed) in 2028 and 2029. Jurgens' $17 million average per year for the duration of his contract makes him the fourth-highest-paid center in the league, behind only Linderbaum, Creed Humphrey and Aaron Brewer, per OverTheCap.com. By comparison,Connor McGovern, who had better numbers than Jurgens last season, makes a little over $13 million per year.

One saving grace for Baltimore is that Jurgens' salary is cheap this season. The Eagles have already paid Jurgens' option bonus, so the Ravens should be on the hook for only the remaining portion of his $1.2 million base salary.

For the Eagles, the loss of Jurgens is the latest blow to an offensive line that is already down Dickerson and recently retired tackle Lane Johnson. Jurgens hadn't played well at guard, but surely they saw him as their long-term center. Drew Kendall, who has played center after Jurgens' shift, has been below average in both pass and run block win rate this season. But the Eagles seemed to believe this was a price too good to pass up.

I understand that the Ravens rightfully believe they are Super Bowl contenders, probably want Ioane to stay and develop at guard and thought they needed to fill their gap at center. Making a trade before the deadline to fix that issue makes sense. But almost certainly there would have been cheaper options out there than this. And the timing is odd, considering that Jurgens is currently in concussion protocol and not expected to play Sunday.

So it seems like the Eagles sensed Baltimore's desperation and squeezed an overpay out of the Ravens. -- Walder

Steelers trade CB Porter to Cowboys

Cowboys get: CB Joey Porter Jr.

Steelers get: 2027 sixth-round pick, 2028 second-round pick

Cowboys grade: B

Steelers grade: C+

This is the Cowboys' third trade with the Steelers in the past 18 months (George PickensandBroderick Jones), and it's their third trade involving a star defensive player after acquiringQuinnen Williams at the trade deadline last season and shippingMicah Parsons to Green Bay last offseason.

It's easy to see what the Cowboys are doing here. DaRon Bland, who first broke onto the scene as a slot corner, was playing on the outside given Dallas' lack of depth. By acquiring Porter, Bland can move back inside, which will allow the Cowboys to relocate 2026 first-round defensive back Caleb Downs, as well. He has been playing the slot, but his natural position is at safety. These are options, not guarantees. Bland might stay outside as the Cowboys instead pursue a strong 1-2 punch at outside corner, with Porter shadowing WR1s.

The salient point is this: Porter can have a rising tide impact on the Cowboys secondary, clarifying the roles of other players and enhancing the whole unit in the process.

Porter is not as tricky of a scheme fit in Dallas as people think, too. His strengths are certainly his length and physicality, such that he can line up in press -- but he has been in press alignments on only 30.6% of his snaps over his career, just above the league average for cornerbacks (24.1%). Porter is a much better man coverage defender than he is in zone, as his passer rating allowed in man coverage over the past four seasons is better than all but Derek Stingley Jr. But the Cowboys are actually running more man coverage (24.8%) under first-year defensive coordinator Christian Parker than the league average (23.2%) over the first three weeks.

Of course, early-season rate stats can be noisy. Parker's Vic Fangio-inspired defense will require Porter to play from greater depth than he did in Pittsburgh, and the communication and keys required in that match-heavy system will take some getting used to. But Porter has a valuable and rare skill set in his press-man ability, and premium picks should be spent on players with premium traits. The Cowboys got much, much better in the secondary -- though the move is not without risk.

Acquiring Porter does not solve all their deficiencies; linebacker is still a big problem for this team, and the edge rush isn't far behind. But if the secondary needs less schematic help now that Porter is in play, more coaching tools can be used to hide those other weak spots.

For the Steelers, Porter's recurring back ailments seemed incurable without an extension or a relocation -- what can you do? It's frustrating that GM Omar Khan invested more in third-contract players like Jalen Ramsey and T.J. Watt over a younger, second-contract player like Porter -- Ramsey and Watt will hit their athletic wall far sooner than Porter. Jamel Dean, another third-contract player signed to play corner opposite Porter, now has to cover WR1s alongside Asante Samuel Jr. and 2026 third-round pick Daylen Everette. Corner is no longer a strong position on Pittsburgh's depth chart.

Porter reportedly had contract demands up at the top of the cornerback market, where Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez recently reset elite deals to clear $33 million annually. I'm not sold that Porter is a top-tier corner deserving of that top money. But because the Steelers let this go on for so long and bleed into the regular season, they wereonly able to acquire a 2027 sixth-round pick and a 2028 second-round pick for a young, ascendent cover corner. They could have -- and should have -- gotten at least a first-round pick by playing this differently and dealing Porter in the spring or earlier in the summer.-- Solak

Vikings trade QB McCarthy to Giants

Giants get: QB J.J. McCarthy

Vikings get: 2027 fifth-round pick

Giants grade: C

Vikings grade: B+

A mere 22 days after the Giants signed Jameis Winston to a two-year, $13 million extension, New York decided it needed to trade a fifth-round pick for an alternative at quarterback. Of course, a lot has happened in three weeks.

Starting quarterback Jaxson Dart suffered a knee injury in Week 2 that is expected to keep him out for at least the regular season. And Winston has delivered two poor performances in Dart's stead, with a 19.0 QBR in relief in Week 2 against the Rams and a 27.9 in Sunday's 12-7 win over the Titans. So in comes McCarthy, the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft.

McCarthy's pro career has gone poorly so far, which is putting it mildly. He suffered a season-ending knee injury in August 2024, which helped Sam Darnold become Minnesota's starting quarterback. McCarthy was named the starter last season after Darnold departed in free agency but started only 10 games after a series of injuries cost him time. And when he was on the field, the results were not good.

McCarthy posted a 36.1 QBR in 2025 (which ranked 38th out of 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts) and recorded a minus-5% pass rate over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats (43rd out of 45). He threw interceptions at a 4.2% clip (44th), took sacks on 9.4% of dropbacks (40th) and had a 1.8% fumble rate (41st). More alarming is that he did all that while playing for Kevin O'Connell, who has seemingly elevated most of the non-McCarthy quarterbacks he has called plays for.

During training camp, not only did McCarthy lose the Vikings' starting quarterback competition to Kyler Murray, but he thenlost the backup competition to Carson Wentz, too. That is a telling red flag.

So why would the Giants trade for him? McCarthy presumably still has some upside based on his draft pedigree, and the Giants are hoping they can profit from him realizing it. But it's hard not to notice the fact that this is John Harbaugh trading for the quarterback his brother, Jim Harbaugh, coached in college at Michigan.

It is difficult to know from the outside which other backup quarterbacks would have been available, but McCarthy still does not seem like an ideal choice. Mac Jones and Spencer Rattler ought to have been the team's first calls (maybe they were). Kirk Cousins probably is off the board with the Raiders sitting at 3-0. Mitchell Trubisky might have been available, considering this already looks like a lost season for Tennessee. And I'm assumingGardner Minshew IIsurely must be available, considering he sits in veteran no-man's land between Jacoby Brissett and rookieCarson Beckin Arizona. Stetson Bennett IV could have been an option, too, after the Rams selected Ty Simpson in the first round of this year's draft. I'll grant that some of those options have less upside than McCarthy.

But the Giants' front office should look in the mirror over its bungling of the Winston situation. It's not unreasonable for the Giants to be aggressive in finding a better replacement given how much time is left in the season. But they clearly shouldn't have signed Winston to an extension right before the season if this is how they feel about him!

Even though Murray is a free agent at the end of this season, McCarthy's ship had already sailed in Minnesota after he couldn't beat out Wentz. If he wasn't going to be the Vikings' backup quarterback, his value would likely have continued to drop. To get a fifth-round pick while saving a few million across his remaining 2026 and 2027 compensation (not nothing!) makes sense. They have uncertainty at quarterback in 2027, yes. But that was true whether McCarthy was there or not. -- Walder

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