El Niño winter: Bay Area airports face flooding risk during holidays, research suggests
SAN JOSE, Calif. (KGO) -- A new UC Davis report warns that parts of the Bay Area, including San Francisco International Airport and Oakland San Francisco Bay Airport, could face flooding risks this winter if several weather and tidal conditions occur simultaneously during the holiday travel season.
The report, authored by Fraser Shilling, director of the UC Davis Road Ecology Center, examines areas along California's coastline that could be vulnerable to flooding during an anticipated El Niño winter.
High tides flooded parts of the Bay Area on Tuesday, an event Shilling said could serve as an early warning.
"This was just like a preview. This is a trailer," Shilling said.
Shilling said the flooding risk is tied to a combination of factors, including king tides, Kelvin waves, winter storms and elevated ocean levels.
LIVE UPDATES: High tides continue to submerge parts of Bay Area with more flooding expected
"This is consistent with our projections related to climate change," he said.
However, Shilling emphasized that the study identifies potential risk, not certainty.
"The potential, it's a risk. It doesn't mean it's certainly going to happen because it's all about timing," he said.
The report identifies both OAK and SFO as areas that could be vulnerable to flooding under certain conditions.
"The Oakland International Airport and SFO. They are both about the same level of risk, except Oakland International Airport completed a levee recently, about two months ago that gives them 2050 protection," Shilling said.
MORE: How El Niño is impacting flood advisory from high tides along California coast
In a statement, OAK said it has completed a major infrastructure project that raised and seismically reinforced the airport's perimeter dike, which protects its primary runway and south field commercial passenger and cargo operations.
The airport said extensive pump systems have been built and tested ahead of winter and that crews also are conducting seasonal preparations that include storm line cleaning, sandbag placement and water pump maintenance.
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"We are confident that the long-range infrastructure improvements that we have completed to address flood risks at Oakland San Francisco Bay Airport (OAK) will ensure smooth airport operations through the forecasted El Niño," the airport said in a statement.
Shilling said those improvements reduce the airport's vulnerability.
"Oakland International Airport will probably be fine," he said.
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In a statement, San Francisco International Airport said, "SFO already has a series of protective measures including vinyl sheet pile walls, concrete seawalls, and concrete-capped earthen berms. SFO facilities staff are also making preparations to reduce flooding risk which includes clearing drainage areas, ensuring pump stations are in top condition, clearing trees that could cause power outages, and preparing sand bags."
Despite those efforts, Shilling questioned whether the measures provide a long-term solution.
"It's clear from their description that that none of those things are long term protection," he said. "I don't know about SFO, the models, without knowing if they've suddenly built a new levee, say that they're going to get flooded."
Shilling said the outcome this winter will depend on whether multiple events occur at the same time.
"It's all about timing. Do we have all of these events occur at the same time? The king tide, the Kelvin wave, the storm tracks, the heavy rain in the watershed and all that water coming down," he said.
